Forum:2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/South-West Indian Ocean Archive 2
06R.EDILSON Moderate Tropical Storm Edilson Another one in the SWIO, forecast to head south and out to sea, maybe becoming a cat 1 on the way. Ryan1000 11:48, February 5, 2014 (UTC) :This shouldn't do much, since the JTWC only makes it peak at 50 knots before dying out for good by the 10th. Steven09876 04:51, February 7, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Edilson Edilson has dissipated. AndrewTalk To Me 13:07, February 8, 2014 (UTC) 07R.FOBANE Tropical Depression 11 Guys, we have a new depression in the SWIO! It's predicted to reach 60 knots while staying out to sea, so here comes Fobane! Steven09876 04:51, February 7, 2014 (UTC) : Officially TD 11 per MFR. It's now forecast to turn well away from any land. At best it might become a cat 1, but nothing more. Ryan1000 20:57, February 7, 2014 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Fobane Now at 45 mph, 992 mbars. Ryan1000 12:35, February 8, 2014 (UTC) : I just saw the JTWC forecast track and it looks like its moving very weirdly and and erratically while spinning fish out in open SWIO waters. It's one of the weirdest tracks I've seen in a while! Well, luckily it's not threatening any land, but since it's predicted to peak only at 45 kts, I'll call it an epic FAIL! Steve820 20:11, February 8, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Fobane Steve, I do not think I see Fobane as the same system. MFR has it at 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/977 mbar (hPa; 28.85 inHg), and the JTWC has it at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds)/70 knot (80 mph) gusts. While MFR does not expect further intensification, the JTWC bumps Fobane up to 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/85 knot (100 mph) gusts. So I would not call Fobane an epic fail, especially considering the intensity power outage the entire SHem has received since Colin and Ian. AndrewTalk To Me 14:14, February 9, 2014 (UTC) : Well, when I wrote my last post, the JTWC only took it up to 45 knots and I thought it would be an epic fail. Fobane must have gotten mad at me after I made fun of it and called it an epic fail yesterday lol. Now, it looks like Fobane won't be a fail at all! While the JTWC takes it up to 70 knots, I root for it to become stronger than that. It's still not predicted to threaten land at all, which means we can root for it to become as strong as it can! Steve820 19:50, February 9, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Fobane It's been dead...for a while! Steve820 20:46, February 15, 2014 (UTC) 08R.GUITO Tropical Cyclone Guito It existed for a while already, forming on the 18th, and it already reached its peak as a Category 1 tropical cyclone too. Now, its just a weak 45 knot TS south of Madagascar, and it should be completely dead by the 23rd. Looks like everyone's been abandoning these forums, am I the only guy who's been tracking the SHem lately? I mean seriously, there should be at least some activity. Since the only thing that's been going on in these forums is dust gathering, and I'm getting bored of this forum, I'm also going to leave these forums starting today. I'll return to this wiki in mid-May when the EPac starts up and the NHem starts getting more TC activity, but for now...BYE EVERYBODY! I probably won't post on this wiki at all until May, but there's a chance I'll post if a massive Category 5 forms in the SHem or less likely, the WPac. I will still be active on the Hypothetical Hurricanes and Hypothetical Tornadoes wikis during this time, so look for me on those wikis. Steve820 00:10, February 22, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Guito Guito is gone now. AndrewTalk To Me 14:00, February 23, 2014 (UTC) 21S.HELLEN Moderate Tropical Storm Hellen We have a new named system in the SWIO after a month of tranquility. Hellen, as named by RSMC La Reunion, is currently at 40 knots (45 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg) per that agency and 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/55 knot (65 mph) gusts per the JTWC. About 437 nautical miles from Antananarivo, Hellen should reach the intensity Fobane and Guito hit. AndrewTalk To Me 11:54, March 29, 2014 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Hellen Apparently, Hellen read my post, and she chose to prove me wrong! We now have a bonafide intense tropical cyclone in the Mozambique Sea when we just had an innocent moderate tropical storm 24 hours earlier. She is at 105 knots (120 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/948 mbar (hPa; 27.99 inHg) per RSMC La Reunion and at 90 knots (105 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/110 knot (125 mph) gusts per the JTWC. The JTWC expects Hellen to become a moderate Category 4 cyclone. Watch out, Madagascar and Mozambique! Someone drunk the Mountain Dew! AndrewTalk To Me 12:14, March 30, 2014 (UTC) : Holy shit, this thing peaked at 150 mph when it hit Madagascar last night, that was a nasty, unexpected surprise for the folks there. 10-minute sustained, they were 145 mph, but that's still incredibly strong. It's weaker now, down to cat 2, and forecast to head west and weaken to a tropical storm when it hits Mozambique in 3 or 4 days. Ryan1000 16:48, March 31, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Hellen And as fast as she rose, she crashed down like a bomb. Hellen is now dead per MFR and at 85 knots (100 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/105 knot (120 mph) gusts per the JTWC. The cyclone should hit Mozambique at borderline tropical storm/tropical depression intensity per the JTWC and at tropical depression intensity per MFR. According to MFR, Hellen is one of the most intense Mozambique Channel cyclones on record. AndrewTalk To Me 23:03, March 31, 2014 (UTC) : Whoa, that storm did quite a show there. I can't believe that a storm would rapidly intensify to become one of the most powerful storms in the Mozambique Channel ever recorded, and then crash down like a bomb after landfall after only a few days of life! Hopefully it wasn't too bad for the guys who live in Madagascar. Steve820 00:52, April 1, 2014 (UTC) ::I've been tracking this system and I'm fairly certain that the low level circulation never touched land. It collapsed just off shore leaving the middle level circulation to cross into Madagascar. So it never made landfall... Supportstorm (talk) 12:15, April 1, 2014 (UTC) :::Hellen's remnants are hovering over northwestern Madagascar. Per the JTWC, her intensity is at 25 knots (30 mph)/1002 mbar (hPa). In a while, the cyclone will continue tracking over the Mozambique Channel and reach Mozambique. The JTWC gives Hellen a low chance of regeneration in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 17:55, April 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::Hellen's remnants continue to hover over the Mozambique Channel near Madagascar. They should begin moving westwards shortly. Eight fatalities have been reported from the cyclone, with an additional nine missing. AndrewTalk To Me 12:16, April 2, 2014 (UTC) :::::With low vertical wind shear and a well-defined low level circulation, Hellen's remnants are poised to regenerate as they close down on the mainland African coast. Per JTWC - Current intensity: 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/1004 mbar (hPa). Chance of regeneration in the next 24 hours - medium. AndrewTalk To Me 00:52, April 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Hellen's remnants have dissipated over the Mozambique Channel. AndrewTalk To Me 11:44, April 4, 2014 (UTC) 22S.IVANOE 96S.INVEST According to the NRL and JTWC, a new invest has developed near Diego Garcia. Its estimated current intensity is at 15 knots (15 mph)/1007 mbar (hPa), and most of the dynamic models forsee a tropical cyclone developing in the next 48 to 72 hours. The JTWC gives the invest a low chance of formation in the next 24 hours, however. AndrewTalk To Me 17:55, April 1, 2014 (UTC) :Albeit a marginal wind shear environment, most dynamic now predict tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 to 72 hours per the JTWC. Its chance of formation per the agency remains low for the next 24 hours, however. AndrewTalk To Me 12:16, April 2, 2014 (UTC) ::As Invest 96S's LLCC consolidates and deep convection starts organizing, most dynamic models foresee tropical cyclone development in 48 to 72 hours. Per JTWC: Current intensity - 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/1004 mbar (hPa). Chance of formation in the next 24 hours - medium. AndrewTalk To Me 00:52, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 15 The MFR has issued its first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 15 well southeast of Diego Garcia. Their current intensity for the system is 25 knots (30 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg). Unfortunately, things do not look to pretty for its future. MFR predicts a peak of only 40 knots (45 mph) (10-minute sustained) before turning extratropical. Meanwhile, the JTWC has issued a TCFA, owing to a well-defined and consolidating LLCC. In addition, low vertical wind shear lays ahead of Invest 97S. Current intensity per JTWC: 25 to 30 knots (30 to 35 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/1002 mbar (hPa). AndrewTalk To Me 11:44, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 22S The MFR has upgraded Tropical Disturbance 15 to a tropical depression due to increasing organization near the system's center. Its intensity has been upgraded to 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/997 mbar (hPa; 29.44 inHg), but it should not get much further. MFR has lowered the depression's forecast peak to 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) due to its large size and increasingly hostile environment surrounding it. Also, the JTWC have now classified Invest 97S as Tropical Cyclone 22S with winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). Due to increasing vertical wind shear, the JTWC also have a rather low standard for the cyclone, predicting a peak intensity of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph) before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone while tracking along the westerlies. AndrewTalk To Me 21:46, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Ivanoe According to the MFR, Tropical Depression 15 has attained gale-force winds and become a moderate tropical storm, prompting the agency to name the cyclone Ivanoe. Currently, Moderate Tropical Storm Ivanoe is at an intensity of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/991 mbar (hPa; 29.26 inHg) per MFR. Due to increasing vertical wind shear, a lack of organization, and a steering subtropical ridge, Ivanoe is expected to become extratropical within 12 hours, get steered by the ridge, and merge with a trough on Monday. As for the JTWC, they report Ivanoe's intensity at 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). Slight intensification is expected in the next 12 hours to 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/55 knot (65 mph) gusts before decreasing SST's and interaction with a mid-latitude system prompt extratropical transition in roughly 48 hours. Enjoy Ivanoe while he lasts! AndrewTalk To Me 13:20, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : Looks like Ivanoe will epically fail. Really? I wanted the name to go to a powerful beast, but instead it goes to a big weakling. Steve820 20:50, April 5, 2014 (UTC) ::Surprisingly, Ivanoe's convection has improved in the past several hours, and its rapid movement is giving it temporary immunity to wind shear. Consequently, MFR has upgraded Ivanoe's intensity to the maximum limit of moderate tropical storm intensity - 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/983 mbar (hPa; 29.03 inHg). But this is not to last! Within hours, SST's will decrease and wind shear will increase, prompting extratropical transition tonight. The JTWC report the same intensity for Ivanoe as before, but with the increasing hostility around it, they predicted Ivanoe has peaked in intensity and will shortly begin its demise. Luckily, no one has been affected from this cyclone! AndrewTalk To Me 00:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Ivanoe (2nd time) Steve, I think Ivanoe read your post, and you made him very mad. The so-called "big weakling" you describe defied forecasts and reached severe tropical storm intensity last night per MFR - 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg). Also, the JTWC took it up to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph) last night. That is exactly why you wait until a storm is done to call it a failure - Fobane did the same thing to you. Anyways, Ivanoe has weakened to 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds)/990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg) per MFR - back down to moderate tropical storm intensity. Moreover, the system is very asymmetric and looks more like a post-tropical cyclone. From here on out, it is expected Ivanoe will become extratropical as it moves alongside a trough in a matter of hours; it might even cross into the AUS region as a post-tropical cyclone. AndrewTalk To Me 12:27, April 6, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Ivanoe It's dead. It's still kind of a fail though, a storm needs to reach "Tropical Cyclone" intensity if it doesn't affect land so I won't call it a weakling. And making storms mad is my ultimate hobby on these forums :D. I know its just a joke, but there's absolutely no way a tropical cyclone can actually read the internet lol. Steve820 03:24, April 10, 2014 (UTC)